World 2030
What happens to the US economy over the next four years depends on how AI labs, big employers, banks and insurers, utilities, startups, universities, workers, governments, and the Fed react to each other at different speeds. Simulations are a good way to see what might happen when all those pieces move at once. So we ran the economy from late 2026 to 2030 in six-month steps, letting all nine groups act on their own incentives and react to what the last round produced.
Across every run, software prices fell more than 20% a year while housing, healthcare, electricity, and skilled trades kept everyday inflation near 3%. Starting from a shared 2026–2027 path, the timeline forks in 2028 into three scenarios below.
In the baseline run, 30-year-old corporate IT slows enterprise payback, defense buys the 2028 power surplus, states add commercial grid surcharges in 2029, tech stocks fall 37.5%, and sticky physical prices hold the Fed at 3.00%.
| Metric | 2026.Q4 | 01 / Baseline (30.H2) | 02 / Agents (30.H2) | 03 / Crunch (30.H2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.75% | 3.00% | 2.25% | 3.00% |
| Headline / Physical CPI | 2.87% / +3.00% | 1.61% / +2.85% | 1.26% / +2.85% | 1.32% / +2.68% |
| Software CPI | +0.4% | −22.0% | −29.0% | −24.5% |
| AI Power Demand / Supply | 19.4 / 18.0 GW | 33.2 / 33.0 GW | 45.4 / 46.1 GW | 32.5 / 33.0 GW |
| Tech Equities (2026 = 100) | 100.0 | 62.5 | 64.5 | 73.5 |
| Real GDP Growth | 2.30% | 1.70% | 2.35% | 2.50% |
| Legacy IT Ready | 18.0% | 42.5% | 59.8% | 48.5% |
| US Entry-Level Desk Hiring | 100.0% | 72.0% | 70.5% (66% trough) | 72.0% |